COVID-19
This page is devoted to tracking the evolution of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID–19), an infectious disease caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Click on the COVID-19 the menu above to find information about Education resources, Publications from ARSLab, and some YouTube videos.
IN THE NEWS
- Simulations help reduce the effects of a second wave of COVID-19
- Tracking the Spread
- Coronavirus: How new simulations can predict the spread of future pandemics
- Predicting possible outcomes to coronavirus and other pandemics with models and simulations
OTTAWA
Daily and Cumulative Cases
Daily Cases
Predictions for Ottawa: 1 Week
A simple approximation with a polynomial of order 6 using least squares method; R² = 0.99; computed daily based on new data available gives the following predictions:
Predicted number of total detected cases/deaths October 4: 4509/287
The numbers above are based on official detected cases only; there are many more in the community. This estimation, although imprecise, uses average spread rates, mortality rates, average response of the medical system. It is a more accurate depiction of the number of cases in the area as of today/1 week:
Estimated number of total true cases up to September 27: 20K
Predicted number of total true cases up to October 4: 20.4K
ONTARIO
Daily and Cumulative Cases
Daily Cases
Predictions for Ontario:
A simple approximation with a polynomial of order 4 using least squares method; R² = 0.97; computed daily based on new data available gives the following predictions:
Predicted number of total detected cases/deaths October 4: 53267/2861
The numbers above are based on official detected cases only; there are many more true cases in the community. This estimation, although imprecise, uses average spread rates, mortality rates, average response of the medical system. It is a more accurate depiction of the number of cases in the area as of today/1 week:
Estimated number of total true cases up to September 27: 202.5K
Predicted number of total true cases up to October 4: 204.3K
NOTE: The page only reports confirmed cases and estimations on true number of total cases. There are thousands of cases unreported (and even asymptomatic; the diagrams only include tested/detected/reported cases from official sources).