COVID-19
This page is devoted to tracking the evolution of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID–19), an infectious disease caused by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Click on the COVID-19 the menu above to find information about Education resources, Publications from ARSLab, and some YouTube videos.
IN THE NEWS
- Tracking the Spread
- Coronavirus: How new simulations can predict the spread of future pandemics
- Predicting possible outcomes to coronavirus and other pandemics with models and simulations
OTTAWA
Daily and Cumulative Cases
(blue bars: daily cases; red bars: cumulative)
Daily Cases
Predictions for Ottawa: 1 day/1 Week
A simple approximation with a polynomial of order 6 using least squares method; R² = 0.99; computed daily based on new data available gives the following predictions:
Predicted number of total detected cases/deaths June 1: 1959/246
Predicted number of total detected cases/deaths Jun 7: 2006/257
The numbers above are based on official detected cases only; there are many more in the community. Using Pueyo’s models, these are the estimations for the Ottawa area. This estimation, although imprecise, uses average spread rates, mortality rates, average response of the medical system. It is a more accurate depiction of the number of cases in the area as of today/1 week:
Estimated total number of true cases on May 31: 17.4K
Predicted total number of true cases on June 7: 18.3K
ONTARIO
Daily and Cumulative Cases
(blue bars: daily cases; red bars: cumulative)
Daily Cases
Predictions for Ontario: 1 day/1 Week.
A simple approximation with a polynomial of order 4 using least squares method; R² = 0.97; computed daily based on new data available gives the following predictions:
Predicted number of total detected cases/deaths June 1: 28193/2071
Predicted number of total detected cases/deaths June 7: 30465/2420
The numbers above are based on official detected cases only; there are many more true cases in the community. Using Pueyo’s models, these are the estimations for the Province of Ontario. This estimation, although imprecise, uses average spread rates, mortality rates, average response of the medical system. It is a more accurate depiction of the number of cases in the area as of today/1 week:
Estimated total number of true cases on May 31: 163K
Predicted number of true cases on June 7: 173K
NOTE: The page only reports confirmed cases and simple estimations on true number of total cases. There are thousands of cases unreported (and even asymptomatic; the diagrams only include tested/detected/reported cases from official sources).
CREDIT: This page is maintained by Dr. Gabriel Wainer and has been developed by him and Dr. Cristina Ruiz Martin